Red Blood in the Blue Water

Three big stories hang over the Republican party after last week.  The first is the sentencing of Michael Cohen, President Trump’s former lawyer and “fixer.”  He once said he would “take a bullet,” for the President.  Now he says he will not pay for the President’s crimes.  The second story is the showdown between President Trump and the Democrats over funding to build a wall on our southern border.  President Trump has asserted that he will allow a partial government shutdown unless $5B is allocated, while Democrats are offering less than one-third of that.  And finally, a Federal Judge in Texas has ruled Obamacare unconstitutional after the individual mandate was stripped from the ACA.

My thoughts and predictions:

Regarding Cohen, this is just another brick in the wall.  Robert Mueller has no intention of indicting President Trump.  He will drag his investigation into the 2020 elections and let the people turn Pres. Trump out of office.  He will use his office to uncover ancillary information, assisting federal District Attorneys in NY to bring charges having to do with the business dealings of the Trump empire, to ensure that result.  It’s a bit of an irony, since his original commission was to investigate outside interference in our election process.

I see no way for President Trump to win reelection in 2020.  He won the 2016 election by running as a populist, flipping three “rust belt” states (PA, OH and WI).  Without that trifecta, he cannot win, and I don’t see a replay of those 2016 results.  While the economy boomed during the first two years of his presidency, it reversed course in October 2018 when it became apparent that Democrats would retake the House of Representatives.  And while new jobs are being created, the President has so far been unable to deliver on the populist proposals to bring jobs back to the U.S.

This ties into the Obamacare ruling.  Immense pressure now exists for the Republicans to not just “repeal” but to “replace.”  I believe that will prove impossible with a Democrat-controlled House, for they would much rather have the healthcare issue hanging over the Republicans in 2020 than to work with Republicans for a replacement measure.  The Republicans will be cast as the party who takes from the poor to give to the rich.  Obamacare will be Exhibit 1.  The Trump tax cuts will be Exhibit 2.

On the government shutdown.  For the first time in my memory, the Republicans won the last shutdown showdown.  They were successfully able to cast it as the “Schumer Shutdown” because the Democrats linked passage of a budget to DACA.  Most Americans saw this as looking out for the interests of illegal immigrants ahead of the interests of the American people.  Since DACA was an issue largely identified with the Democrats, that party took the hit despite every attempt to pin it on President Trump.  I don’t think the same dynamics will be in play this time.  The border wall is seen as a Republican issue, and a majority will blame Republicans if the government shuts down.

If Republicans don’t pull out of this tailspin, look for a rout in 2020.  And in the meantime, don’t look for an assist from the liberal media or the Democrats.  They smell blood in the water.

gkr1996 posted at 2018-12-17 Category: Political